LONDON, UK — St Mary Capital, a financial technology firm providing multi-asset market access, has announced the publication of a comprehensive analysis examining the likelihood of a "Santa Rally" developing across digital and traditional markets as the year-end approaches. The newly released report explores the historical pattern of market gains that often occur during the final weeks of December, typically between Christmas and New Year's.
The analysis comes as investors watch closely after a turbulent October that saw major liquidations in both equities and cryptocurrencies. According to the published report, Bitcoin, which has mirrored traditional market seasonality in previous years, is again at the center of speculation. The analysis presents historical data showing that the world's largest cryptocurrency has ended most Decembers in positive territory, with gains between 8% and 46%. However, recent price movements have cast uncertainty over whether this pattern will repeat.
Key Findings from the Analysis
The St Mary Capital report notes that Bitcoin recently recorded its fourth "death cross," when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day, often viewed as a bearish indicator. The occurrence has prompted caution among traders who are weighing historical optimism against weakening technical momentum.
"The 'Santa Rally' is less about guaranteed profits and more about behavioral cycles," said St Mary Capital's CTO, Benjamin Rothwell, discussing the published findings. "During this period, trading volumes typically thin out, portfolio managers adjust for tax efficiency, and investors often express renewed risk appetite heading into the New Year. These combined elements can create an upward bias in asset prices, even in uncertain macroeconomic conditions."
Mixed Signals Highlighted in Report
Despite the seasonal trend, the analysis points to a complex setup for this year. The report documents how Bitcoin dropped to less than $100,000 on two occasions in November, the lowest point in weeks. The analysis observes that the trend below its 365-day moving average, around $102,000, indicates that it lost a major technical and psychological support level.
The published findings also examine traditional markets, which have shown similar unease. The report notes that the S&P 500 fell 1.6% in the first week of November, following a stretch of strong year-to-date performance. Historically, however, the analysis points out that a weak start to November has not prevented markets from finishing higher. Data compiled in the report from several financial research groups indicate that when early November posts a decline after a double-digit annual gain, equities often recover modestly before year-end.
Discussing the report's conclusions, Rothwell added that while historical patterns still carry weight, broader market conditions may limit their influence. "Liquidity remains uneven, and institutional positioning is cautious," Rothwell said. "Yet, structural factors such as expected interest rate cuts, steady inflows, and seasonal portfolio adjustments could still provide some support for risk assets as December approaches."
The analysis further explores how in equities, seasonal flows associated with corporate buybacks and fund reallocation tend to support the year-end rally story. The report notes that retail investors, who have been active all year round, also contribute to the momentum in lower-volume trading periods. Nonetheless, the findings acknowledge that sentiment can change rapidly based on macroeconomic or geopolitical occurrences, making short-term forecasting difficult to validate.
Measured Expectations Outlined
While the published analysis acknowledges historical data supporting the idea of a "Santa Rally," the report suggests market participants are approaching the final trading weeks of 2025 with measured expectations. The recent volatility in Bitcoin, along with unpredictable policy indications and a pessimistic global growth perspective, has dampened optimism about a widespread recovery, according to the findings.
The report indicates that for most investors, portfolio positioning has become the center of interest instead of short-term speculation. According to the analysis, institutional traders are evaluating whether a possible change in central bank policy or a reduction in inflation pressures would enhance risk sentiment at the beginning of the New Year. The findings note that retail traders, meanwhile, remain on the lookout for digital assets in terms of possible new upward movement.
The St Mary Capital analysis concludes that although the potential of a Santa Rally is statistically observable, it requires a delicate balance of sentiment, liquidity, and macro conditions.
"December often brings a psychological reset to markets," Rothwell concluded. "Optimism alone doesn't drive the rally; it's a mix of positioning, seasonal flows, and the collective belief that the year can end stronger than it began. This year, that belief will be tested more than usual."
The published analysis suggests that the coming weeks will determine whether seasonal tendencies can outweigh recent market headwinds, or if 2025 will close on a quieter, more uncertain note for both equities and digital assets.
About St Mary Capital
St Mary Capital is a global investment firm offering access to a diverse range of financial instruments, including cryptocurrencies, equities, indices, and commodities. Known for its data-driven approach and personalized account management, St Mary Capital empowers clients with tools, insights, and support to navigate today's complex financial landscape. With a strong focus on transparency and regulatory alignment, the company continues to be a trusted resource for modern investors worldwide.
