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Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $13.3B Options Expiration Depends on 15% Surge to Protect Major Positions

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $13.3B Options Expiration Depends on 15% Surge to Protect Major Positions

Bitget-RWA2025/11/25 23:52
By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 30% from its $126,000 peak to $87,080 amid ETF outflows, stablecoin liquidity declines, and leverage unwinds. - A $13.3B options expiry on Dec 26, 2025, features a $1.74B call condor bet targeting $100,000–$118,000, with profits capped at $112,000. - November saw $3.5B in Bitcoin ETF outflows, while stablecoin market cap dropped $4.6B, signaling heightened liquidity risks. - Market stability signs include a 32 RSI near oversold levels and reduced downside protection costs, though s

Bitcoin Faces $13.3B Options Expiry Amid Market Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has dropped more than 30% from its October high above $126,000, now trading close to $87,080 as a mix of ETF outflows, shrinking stablecoin liquidity, and rapid deleveraging continue to pressure the market

. This two-month decline—the sharpest since mid-2022—has outpaced traditional indices, with the S&P 500 down 2.5% and the Nasdaq off 4% in the same timeframe . In November, $3.5 billion was pulled from ETFs, marking the largest monthly withdrawal since February, as funds like (IBIT) and Grayscale’s saw consecutive days of redemptions . Experts now estimate that the market would need $1 billion in new weekly inflows to lift Bitcoin by 4%, a level well above current demand .

The selloff has accelerated ahead of a $13.3 billion options expiration set for December 26, 2025, with one institutional player making a $1.74 billion call condor wager

. This strategy, executed on Deribit through Paradigm, is profitable if Bitcoin settles between $106,000 and $112,000 at expiry, but profits are capped above $118,000 .
Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $13.3B Options Expiration Depends on 15% Surge to Protect Major Positions image 0
This trade is the largest for the December expiry, with the $100,000 strike showing the highest open interest at 15,517 , followed by the $112,000 and $106,000 strikes . Observers point out that Bitcoin would need to climb roughly 15% from current prices to reach the lower end of the profit range, highlighting the asset’s current vulnerability .

ETF outflows have worsened liquidity issues, with stablecoin market cap dropping by $4.6 billion since November 1 and net crypto-to-fiat outflows reaching $800 million last week

. Blockchain data shows diverging trends among Bitcoin holders: mid-sized “whales” (wallets with 100–1,000 BTC) have increased their holdings by 0.47% since November 11, while large holders (over 1,000 BTC) cut their exposure by 1.5% in October . This shift, as long-term holders sell to ETFs and retail buyers, has sparked worries that future selloffs could intensify as less resilient investors absorb the supply .

Despite the ongoing volatility, there are signs the market may be stabilizing. Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 32, approaching oversold levels, while the cost of downside protection via options has fallen to 4.5% from a 2025 peak of 11%

. “This suggests stress levels have eased considerably, and investors believe the bottom may be in for now,” said Caroline Mauron, Orbit Markets co-founder . Short-term holders, however, are still in a capitulation phase, with their SOPR (spent output profit ratio) hovering near zero—a classic sign of possible mid-term reversals .

The market’s direction will also depend on broader economic factors. With the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision approaching, traders now see an 80% probability of a rate cut after earlier uncertainty

. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100, now above 0.72, indicates that institutional investors still treat it as part of the equity risk landscape rather than a macro hedge . Meanwhile, the SEC’s recent approval of ether ETF options—specifically for BlackRock’s ETHA—signals a regulatory shift that could have major implications for crypto trading .

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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