Bitcoin News Update: Report Reveals Bitcoin’s Future Depends on Macroeconomic Transparency and Trust from Institutions

Bitcoin has recently dropped 36% from its October high, igniting a heated discussion among investors: will the cryptocurrency manage to recover, or could further institutional selling worsen the decline? Experts suggest that

needs to reclaim the $90,000 mark to avoid a surge of forced sales from ETFs and major stakeholders, as the market teeters on a delicate balance.

This wave of selling has highlighted significant differences in how investors are reacting. Major institutional players, those holding more than 1,000 BTC,

in October, while smaller retail wallets with less than 0.1 BTC experienced notable outflows. This split is reminiscent of redistribution periods seen in 2019 and 2020, which were followed by extended consolidation phases. Still, will depend on steady ETF inflows and ongoing spot demand above $84,000. In derivatives, cautious optimism is evident: a $1.76 billion "call condor" strategy on Deribit to the $100,000–$112,000 range by December 2025, reflecting institutional hopes for a rebound rather than a dramatic surge.

Broader economic conditions remain crucial.

have dampened risk appetite, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipping to 97.2 and Treasury yields staying close to 4%. —tracking the Nasdaq 100 with a 0.72 correlation—shows it acts more like a leveraged risk asset than a safe haven. Meanwhile, companies such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) could see over $11.6 billion in outflows if crypto indices remove them, .

Technical signals point to possible support.

at $89,400 (Active Realized Price) and $82,400 (True Market Mean). In a worst-case outcome, the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model suggests a floor near $45,500, though most analysts anticipate stabilization around $80,000. as Bitcoin’s Risk-Off Signal drops and liquidations decrease. that a secondary, milder sell-off often marks a market bottom, with prices holding previous lows serving as a bullish indicator.

Shifts in macro liquidity could alter the outlook.

in December have risen to 69.3%, and analysts like Charles Edwards believe liquidity boosts are unavoidable to prevent systemic risks. Should the Fed adopt a more dovish stance, Bitcoin could benefit, as it has historically rallied during periods of quantitative easing. Nevertheless, : ETF redemptions are still negative, and Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio hovering near zero signals poor risk-adjusted performance.

Large holder activity adds another layer of complexity.

that mid- and large-sized investors (100–10,000 BTC) have been accumulating during the downturn, in contrast to retail selling. This pattern echoes the 2022 bear market, where forced liquidations removed speculative excess and helped establish a price floor. However, the group holding 1,000–10,000 BTC continues to sell, posing a challenge to a decisive reversal.

The future direction depends on three main factors:

, ETF inflows surpassing $500 million each week, and the ability to maintain prices above $84,000. Falling short on any of these fronts could trigger further liquidations down to $75,000 or lower. For now, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal moment, with its trajectory closely linked to economic developments and institutional trust.