Matrixport Market Watch: Rebound Recovery or Trend Reversal?

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations have clearly turned dovish, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from about 30% at the beginning of the month to nearly 90%, providing key support for the rebound of risk assets. Geopolitical risks have not further escalated, and the "Fear and Greed Index" has rebounded from the extreme fear range, showing marginal improvement in market sentiment. Meanwhile, after several consecutive weeks of net outflows, crypto investment products have begun to show signs of slight capital inflows.

BTC and ETH Stabilize and Rebound, On-chain and Derivatives Recover in Tandem

As of December 1, Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,500, rebounding about 15% from last week's low of $80,000. The $80,000 level has initially formed a stage support, but the $98,000–$100,000 range remains a key resistance zone. If it cannot be effectively breached, this round of increase may still be a technical rebound. Ethereum is currently around $3,025, and returning above $3,000 has eased market tension. If it can hold above $3,200 in the future, it will be more conducive to confirming a trend recovery.

On-chain data is sending positive signals. During November, the supply of stablecoins such as USDT increased by about $1.3 billion, reflecting a move to safety by funds; recently, some stablecoins have flowed back into exchanges, indicating a renewed willingness to allocate. Ethereum's staking rate is close to 30% of total supply, and active addresses for BTC and ETH have stabilized and rebounded. Whale addresses have continued to accumulate at low levels, showing that long-term capital allocation remains unchanged. In terms of derivatives, implied volatility has fallen, the Put/Call ratio has returned to balance, and perpetual contract funding rates have turned positive from negative, with bullish forces gradually recovering.

Structural Opportunities and Allocation Strategies

At the sector level, Layer2, RWA, and the Solana ecosystem have shown resilience. User activity on Ethereum Layer 2 networks remains stable, the scale of on-chain government bonds and real-world asset tokenization in the RWA track continues to expand, providing stable yield anchors. SOL has rebounded sharply from its November low, and with positive expectations such as spot ETF, ecosystem confidence continues to recover.

Strategically, if the current phase is judged to be a technical rebound, it is recommended to focus on stable-yield structured products to obtain range-bound returns during volatility; if the market is believed to have entered the early stage of a reversal, tools such as Accumulator and positive FCN can be used for bullish positioning, enhancing return flexibility while controlling risk.

Overall, multiple indicators show that the market is moving from a fear zone into a recovery phase, but key resistance has not yet been broken and macro policies are still pending. Before the trend becomes truly clear, flexible allocation and steady progress remain the optimal response strategy at this stage.

All of the above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management. This article only represents the author's personal views.