10x Research: Bitcoin appears to be range-bound on the surface, but the derivatives market is already pricing in significant volatility

According to ChainCatcher, a report by 10x Research indicates that while Bitcoin's price has shown limited volatility recently, pricing in the derivatives market has already begun to reflect the potential for significant market moves.

The report points out that several structural signals have emerged in the market recently: volatility is being bought rather than sold, option skew has shifted back towards downside protection, funding rates have declined, open interest in futures is diverging, and ETFs continue to see net outflows. The report suggests that although the price range appears stable on the surface, capital positioning and pricing structures indicate that the market is preparing for unexpected events. Bulls typically view the rebuilding of the US Treasury General Account, the end of quantitative tightening, and potential rate cuts as liquidity positives. However, if the market structure lacks consistent support, macro expectations are unlikely to drive a sustained trend. 10x Research notes that liquidity alone is not sufficient to create directional moves; it is still necessary to observe whether leverage, position structure, and trading flows are aligned. This weekly report covers Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives positions, volatility trends, funding rates, ETF and stablecoin flows, options activity, as well as potential ranges and key catalysts for the next 1 to 2 weeks.