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Polymarket Faces Double-Counting Allegations Over Trading Volumes

Polymarket Faces Double-Counting Allegations Over Trading Volumes

CryptonewslandCryptonewsland2025/12/09 14:27
By:by Wesley Munene
  • Polymarket’s trading volumes may be inflated by 100% due to double-counting on third-party analytics platforms.
  • The issue stems from separate “OrderFilled” events for maker and taker sides of trades, leading to redundant volume reporting.
  • Major data providers, including DefiLlama and Blockworks, are correcting their dashboards to reflect accurate trading volumes.

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is under scrutiny following allegations that its reported trading volumes are inflated. Research by Paradigm has uncovered an issue where Polymarket’s trading volumes appear to be double-counted across third-party analytics platforms. The findings have raised concerns over the accuracy of public volume data, potentially overstating Polymarket’s activity by as much as 100%.

The Core Issue: Double-Counting of Trades

Paradigm’s investigation reveals that Polymarket’s smart contracts emit separate “OrderFilled” events for both the maker and taker sides of each trade. This creates a redundancy, as most third-party dashboards aggregate these events, leading to a double-counting of volume. A single trade that involves the sale of $4.13 worth of tokens, for example, triggers two events, one for the maker and one for the taker. 

Polymarket data bug: volumes are double-counted in most public data

Interesting find in diligence from @notnotstorm https://t.co/xuQ41JUVHf

— Matt Huang (@matthuang) December 8, 2025

As a result, these dashboards report $8.26 in volume, rather than the actual $4.13 traded. This issue extends across both the Polymarket CTF Exchange and NegRisk Exchange contracts. The event emission pattern is the same on both, leading to similar volume overstatements on each.

Impact on Third-Party Analytics, Industry Response, and Correction

The double-counting issue affects the volume data on third-party analytics platforms that aggregate Polymarket’s trading activity. These platforms have been reporting figures that are nearly double the actual volume traded on Polymarket. For instance, while Polymarket’s true monthly volumes in October and November 2024 were around $1.25 billion, most public dashboards showed inflated figures close to $2.5 billion. Slivkoff, who conducted the analysis for Paradigm, clarified that Polymarket’s internal volume reporting system is not affected. The problem lies in how third-party data aggregators interpret Polymarket’s publicly disclosed data.

After Paradigm’s findings, several prominent data providers, including DefiLlama, Allium Labs, and Blockworks, confirmed they would update their dashboards to correct the double-counting error. These updates will align reported figures with the actual trading volume on Polymarket. Despite this, some industry analysts, such as Dragonfly’s Hildobby , have defended existing practices. They argue that more advanced dashboards have been accounting for this distinction since 2024, though the methodology was not well-documented until now.

Broader Implications for Prediction Market Metrics

The volume dispute underscores the broader challenges in measuring trading activity in prediction markets. In these markets, low-priced contracts can create misleading notional volume figures. A small contract purchased for just $10 can result in reported volumes of thousands of dollars, despite the actual capital at risk being much lower.

Experts are advocating for alternative metrics, such as open interest and fee revenue, which may offer a more accurate picture of market activity. These metrics could help prevent misinterpretations of trading volumes in the future.

As Polymarket prepares for a major relaunch in the U.S. following CFTC approval, the company faces further challenges, including criticism over its plans to establish an internal market-making operation. These developments come amid increasing scrutiny of its competitive dynamics with rival platform Kalshi.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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