Bitunix Analyst: Nonfarm Payroll Data Distortion Amplifies Policy Expectations, Crypto Market Focuses on "Direction Rather Than Numbers"

BlockBeats News, December 16, the US November non-farm payrolls report will be released today. The market generally expects only about 50,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.4%–4.5%, indicating an overall weak tone. FOREX.com pointed out that any result below expectations could prompt the market to price in the next Federal Reserve rate cut earlier; Mitsubishi UFJ also warned that if both employment and unemployment rate deteriorate simultaneously, selling pressure on the US dollar may continue until the end of the year.

It is important to note that both this non-farm payrolls report and the subsequently released CPI are considered "incomplete data." Due to the government shutdown, the October unemployment rate was historically missing, some CPI components could not be supplemented, and the November household survey weights were forced to be adjusted. Officials have also admitted that data variance is higher in the short term. This means the credibility of a single figure has decreased, and the market will be more inclined to trade based on "policy direction expectations" and "changes in risk sentiment" rather than the precise employment increase itself.

From the perspective of the crypto market, weak non-farm payrolls combined with data distortion have a dual impact on risk assets: on one hand, earlier rate cut expectations are favorable for liquidity prospects, providing medium-term support for assets such as BTC; on the other hand, increased data uncertainty may trigger sharp short-term volatility in interest rates, the US dollar, and the crypto market, making leveraged funds more susceptible to liquidation.

Bitunix analyst: During the phase of "low credibility macro data," the core of market speculation is not about whether the non-farm payrolls are good or bad, but whether they are sufficient to change the Federal Reserve's policy narrative. The crypto market should be alert to liquidity sweeps and high volatility before and after the event, and focus on whether funds use macro uncertainty to deleverage and reprice.