Bitcoin Partially Recovered, So What Happens Next? Analyst Says Risk Persists, Gives Level

The cryptocurrency market has stabilized today after yesterday's sharp sell-off.

Bitcoin signaled a recovery in the early hours of the US session, rising above $87,000. The largest cryptocurrency is up about 3% from its overnight lows, while Ethereum was relatively weaker, gaining only 1.4%. Major altcoins such as BNB, XRP, and SUI, however, outperformed the market, rising between 3% and 6%.

On the macro front, the delayed US employment data stood out. November data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high. Despite this, markets currently see a low probability of a Fed interest rate cut in January; according to pricing, this probability is at 24%.

While the early rebound suggests Bitcoin's decline from its peak above $94,000 last week may have paused in the short term, some analysts believe downside risks persist. Senior market analyst Samer Hasn described Bitcoin's rise from its November low of $80,000 to early December as a “corrective peak” and argued that the next move could drop below $80,000.

In a market note he published, Hasn described the current environment as “fragile.” He stated that data from derivative markets supports a cautious stance, noting that a total of $750 million in long positions were liquidated in the last two days, with $250 million of that belonging to Bitcoin futures. According to Hasn, investors are either reducing their positions before important data releases or are forced to exit the market; this strengthens the downward momentum. He stated that without a positive macro catalyst, Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback, and levels below $80,000 are no longer considered “extreme risk” but are now part of short-term scenarios.

On the other hand, 21Shares crypto investment expert David Hernandez said that in the short term, the market is experiencing a struggle between the delay in monetary policy easing and Bitcoin's long-term store of value. Hernandez stated that as investors reassess their risk perceptions, selling pressure may increase in the short term, and Bitcoin may have to defend critical support levels. However, in the long term, he emphasized that in an environment struggling to combat inflation, Bitcoin's limited supply continues to be an attractive accumulation vehicle for whales.