QCP: Fed Policy Flattens, AI Investments and Cryptocurrencies Face Structural Challenges

According to TechFlow, on December 18, QCP released a briefing stating that the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve sent cautious signals, with the policy path clearly flattening and the market expecting about 2.3 rate cuts next year. The policy remains "data-dependent," aiming to stabilize the labor market while controlling inflation. The Federal Reserve's $40 billion Treasury purchase plan has already lowered repo rates by 25 basis points to 4%, easing some funding pressures.

At the same time, the mismatch between investment and returns in the AI sector is becoming increasingly prominent. Although capital continues to flow into AI infrastructure, revenue growth lags behind. If returns cannot be realized, it may trigger a broader stock market valuation adjustment.

The cryptocurrency market is facing new structural risks. MSCI is evaluating the exclusion of companies with more than 50% cryptocurrency exposure from its indices, which could lead to passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion. Although regulatory environments in regions such as Japan are gradually improving, the balance between market resilience and fragility remains delicate.