XRPning muhim $2.95 qo‘llab-quvvatlashi: ehtimoliy $4–$5.80 rally uchun hal qiluvchi lahza

XRP narxining 2025-yil avgust oyida $2.95 qo‘llab-quvvatlash darajasi atrofidagi harakati treyderlar va institutsional investorlar uchun diqqat markaziga aylandi. Bu daraja, 2021-yilgi rally paytida psixologik qarshilik bo‘lgan bo‘lsa, hozirda $4–$5.80 oralig‘idagi potentsial rallyni tasdiqlashga intilayotgan bullar uchun muhim jang maydoniga aylandi. Texnik indikatorlar va institutsional dinamikalar yuqori xavfli burilish nuqtasini ko‘rsatmoqda, natijasi esa XRP’ning kelgusi oylardagi yo‘nalishini belgilab berishi mumkin.

Texnik tahlil: $2.95 da tortishuv

XRP avgust oyi o‘rtalaridan beri $2.78 va $3.12 oralig‘ida simmetrik uchburchak shaklida konsolidatsiya qilmoqda [1]. $3.05 dan yuqorida barqaror yopilish bu shaklning bullish potentsialini tasdiqlaydi va narx maqsadlarini $4.40 (bull pennant) va $5.80 (cup-and-handle) ga ochadi [2]. Aksincha, $2.95 dan pastga tushish $2.40 darajasini qayta sinovdan o‘tkazishi mumkin, kapital chiqimlari davom etsa, bearish impuls kuchayadi [3].

Asosiy texnik indikatorlar aralash manzarani ko‘rsatmoqda. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 atrofida, ehtiyotkor xarid bosimini bildiradi, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) esa o‘rtacha chiziqdan pastda, bearish kayfiyatni aks ettiradi [4]. Biroq, 50 kunlik va 200 kunlik harakatlanuvchi o‘rtachalarining golden crossi, agar XRP $3.05 dan yuqorida yopilsa, bullish impuls ehtimolini bildiradi [5]. On-chain ma’lumotlar esa voqeani yanada murakkablashtiradi: avgust boshida kitlar tomonidan yig‘ilish va institutsional kirimlar $17.6 millionni tashkil etib, XRP’ning utility-ga asoslangan hikoyasiga ishonch ortib borayotganini ko‘rsatmoqda [6].

Institutsional dinamikalar: Regulyator aniqligi va ETF katalizatorlari

AQSh SEC tomonidan 2025-yil avgust oyida XRP’ni ikkilamchi bozorlarda tovar sifatida qayta tasniflanishi o‘yin qoidalarini o‘zgartirdi. Bu regulyator o‘zgarishi asosiy huquqiy to‘siqni olib tashladi va institutsional qabulni kuchaytirdi. Ripple’ning On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) xizmati 2025-yil 2-choragida $1.3 trillion miqdorida transchegaraviy tranzaksiyalarni qayta ishladi va 300 dan ortiq institutsional mijozlarni jalb qildi [7]. Bundan tashqari, spot XRP ETF’larining tasdiqlanishi kutilmoqda — hozirda Polymarket’da ehtimoli 81% — bu esa milliardlab likvidlik kiritishi va narxni $20–$27 oralig‘iga olib chiqishi mumkin [8].

Derivativ bozorlari ham institutsional qiziqishni tasdiqlaydi. CME XRP fyucherslarida ochiq pozitsiyalar $1 billionga yetdi, bu spekulyativ pozitsiyalar va potentsial breakout katalizatorini aks ettiradi [9]. Kitlar faolligi va yirik hamyonlar yig‘ilishi institutsional so‘rib olish hikoyasini yanada mustahkamlaydi, tahlilchilar XRP’ning utility asosidagi qabul qilinishi kuchaysa, $4–$5 rally bo‘lishini prognoz qilmoqda [10].

Xavflar va ehtiyot choralar

Bullish ssenariyga qaramay, xavflar mavjud. $2.95 dan pastga tushish stop-loss buyurtmalarining zanjirli ishga tushishiga sabab bo‘lishi va pasayishni $2.74 yoki hatto $2.24 gacha tezlashtirishi mumkin [11]. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) ko‘rsatkichi so‘nggi to‘qqiz oy ichida eng past darajaga tushdi, bu chiqimlar kirimlardan ustunligini bildiradi [12]. Ehtiyotkor treyderlarga $3.15 dan yuqorida tasdiqlangan breakoutni kutish tavsiya etiladi, chunki konsolidatsiya bosqichida soxta breakoutlar tez-tez uchraydi [13].

Xulosa: Muhim burilish nuqtasi

XRP’ning $2.95 qo‘llab-quvvatlash darajasi oddiy texnik belgi emas — bu psixologik va institutsional muvozanat nuqtasi. Muvaffaqiyatli himoya ko‘p dollarlik rallyni boshlab berishi, regulyator aniqligi, institutsional kirimlar va real dunyo utility’sidan foydalanishi mumkin. Biroq, pastga tushish tuzatishni chuqurlashtiradi va yanada chuqurroq qo‘llab-quvvatlash darajalarini sinovdan o‘tkazadi. Investorlar texnik tasdiqlar va makroiqtisodiy katalizatorlarni diqqat bilan kuzatishi kerak, chunki kelgusi bir necha hafta XRP’ning 2025-yildagi yo‘nalishini belgilab berishi mumkin.

Manba:
[1] XRP's Critical $2.95 Support and Path to $5.80 [bitget.com]
[2] XRP's Impending Breakout: A Strategic Case for Capital Reallocation in Altcoins [bitget.com]
[3] XRP Price Struggles Below $3 As Capital Outflows Reach New Levels [bitget.com]
[4] XRP Price at Pivot Point: Can $2.95 Support Catalyze a Multi-Dollar Bull Run? [bitget.com]
[5] XRP's Tug-of-War: Navigating Breakouts and Breakdowns in the Volatile Crypto Market [bitget.com]
[6] XRP Tests $3 Zone With Technical Signals Pointing to Growing Strength Above Critical Support [bitget.com]
[7] Ripple's XRP Price in 2025: Regulatory Clarity and Cross-Border Payments Drive a New Era [bitget.com]
[8] XRP Price Analysis: Analyst Sees a Downtrend [bitget.com]
[9] XRP Futures Set Open Interest Record at CME, With $3.70 Target [bitget.com]
[10] 3 Reasons XRP Has Dominated the Cryptocurrency Market in 2025 [bitget.com]
[11] XRP Crash Warning: Biggest September Slump May Be Coming—Should You Hold or Sell? [bitget.com]
[12] XRP Price Drop Dampens Investor Sentiment for September [bitget.com]
[13] XRP PRICE TODAY: Ripple Holds at $3 as Key Pattern Develops [bitget.com]