10CENT HOUSE narxiHOUSE

FOMC PREVIEW: - The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps.(confirmed by Bessent) - The Fed will also release their quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts. -All eyes will be on tone of Powell’s press conference, any Dissent and the “dot-plot” projections. VIEWS: - Fawad Razaqzada: Market be watching how the market reacts to any mention of inflation being ‘well anchored’ or the labor market ‘cooling more than expected, That sort of language would be music to the ears of dollar bears. On the flip side, a cautious Fed that hints at a ‘wait and see’ approach might stall the rally, at least temporarily. - Standard chartered: expect 50bps cut, Powell is unlikely to be forthcoming on further easing, dot-plot to suggest an additional 25bps cut this year but just one 25bps cut in 2026. - BBG: expect 25bps cut. That won’t be because economic data on both sides of Fed’s mandate – price stability and full employment – warrant it. Rather, the markets expect a rate cut, the White House wants it and we think Powell is doing what he sees as needed to fend off further threats to the Fed’s independence. Economists surveyed by BBG largely expect two rate cuts for this year. That would imply only one more cut after this week’s meeting, either in October or in December. - WSJ: investors will be focused on how many members support three rate cuts this year or stick with the two cuts that a slim majority anticipated when the labor market looked sturdier in June. - Goldman Sachs: Expect the FOMC Statement to Acknowledge the Slowdown in Job Growth but Do Not Expect a Change to the Policy Guidance or a Nod Toward an October Cut; Dot-plot to show 2 cuts in 2025 & 2 cuts in 2026; 25bp cuts in Oct, Dec; 50bp possible if jobs worsen; FOMC projections slightly more dovish than market pricing. - JPMorgan: 2–3 dovish dissents for 50bp+. Sees 25bp cuts Oct & Dec, then pause. *The Fed has cut rates with equity markets within 1% of ATH 16 times in its history. S&P 500 was higher a year later every single time with an average return of nearly 15%. Note: Binance has received over $4b in Stable Coins leading to this meeting.

Imagine buying a house at the ATH with no down payment and double-digit interest rates potentially waiting at the end of the decade. Take a home worth $400,000, fully financed, zero equity down. Repayment set at 2–3% per year, which was common in Germany when I left. At 1% rates → monthly ~$1,000–1,333 At 4% rates → monthly ~$2,000–2,333 At 10% rates → monthly ~$4,333–5,000 At 2–3% repayment, paying this off takes 25–40 years. Add interest on top, and while payments shrink slowly over time, you’re still tied in for decades. Many probably took flexible credits because they came with even lower initial rates and the promise of freedom. In reality, rates jumped to 5%, leaving the unprepared with painful monthly extra costs. Others locked into 10–20 year contracts, only to face the risk of refinancing into even higher rates later, or paying hefty penalties to exit early. This was by design. A system that again chained an entire generation into life-long “work” contracts, often with no real way out, except old age. By the time many of those mortgages start to fail, basic investing knowledge will finally be common sense, but too late for most. While the super-rich quietly buy bonds with double-digit returns, the majority will already have lost not just their homes, but more than everything they ever worked for. That’s how the wealth of entire generations gets transferred, first slowly, then all at once.

🗞️ Need to catch up on the news? Here's our top 10 from today: 🔸 UK to strengthen ties with US on cryptocurrencies and digital assets, with the deal expected to specifically include stablecoins and closer regulatory alignment, FT reports. 🔹 Tuttle Capital files for Bonk Income Blast ETF, Litecoin Income Blast ETF and SUI Income Blast ETF. 🔸 The U.S. House is pushing to add a CBDC ban to the market structure bill. 🔹 Bitwise filed for a Stablecoin & Tokenization ETF that will invest in stocks and crypto assets. 🔸 CleanCore bought another 100M $DOGE, pushing its Dogecoin treasury past 600M $DOGE. 🔹 Crypto-friendly Stephen Miran has sworn in as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 🔸 Google launched an open-source AI payments protocol supporting credit cards and stablecoins, built with Coinbase, the Ethereum Foundation and over 60 partners, per Fortune. 🔹 Santander’s online bank Openbank now offers crypto trading in Germany and will expand to Spain soon. 🔸 Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan sees an incoming “ETPalooza,” with SEC’s generic listing rules paving the way for rapid crypto ETP approvals. 🔹 Standard Chartered's SC Ventures plans to raise $250 million for a digital assets fund focused on fintech investments, targeting launch next year, per Bloomberg.

⚡️ UPDATE: The U.S. House is pushing to add a CBDC ban to the market structure bill.