Friction Finance narxiTAO

TAO/USDT aim $800

Understanding the US Jobless Claims Data and Its Broader Economic Context; On November 27, 2025, the US Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report, revealing a mixed picture of the labor market. Initial jobless claims, which measure new filings for unemployment benefits, fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22 a decrease of 6,000 from the prior week's revised 222,000 and below market expectations of 225,000. This marked the lowest level since February 2025, signaling low layoffs and a resilient job market amid broader economic uncertainties. However, continuing claims, which track ongoing unemployment benefits, rose by 7,000 to 1.960 million for the week ending November 15, indicating that some workers are struggling to find new jobs despite the low initial filings. This data comes against a backdrop of sticky inflation around 3%, a "low-hire, low-fire" economy where companies are hesitant to both add and shed workers, and ongoing debates about Federal Reserve policy. Economically, lower initial claims suggest a tight labor market, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively a scenario often described as "higher for longer." This can strengthen the US dollar, increase bond yields, and pressure risk assets by making safer investments more attractive. Conversely, rising continuing claims hint at underlying slack, potentially supporting dovish Fed bets if paired with other weak data. The cryptocurrency market, highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, liquidity conditions, and risk sentiment, reacted with initial volatility but ultimately saw gains, with Bitcoin reclaiming $90,000 a 12% rebound from recent lows near $80,000. This essay explores the detailed impacts on the crypto market, breaking it down section-wise by key sectors, drawing on market reactions and expert analyses. Overall Impact on the Crypto Market; The jobless claims data reinforced perceptions of a resilient US economy, which can have dual effects on crypto. On one hand, a strong labor market boosts consumer confidence and spending, indirectly supporting risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies through increased liquidity and investment flows. Crypto markets extended their rally post-release, with Bitcoin surging above $90,000 and the global crypto market cap hovering around $3.2 trillion, buoyed by ETF inflows and breaking from typical pre-Thanksgiving weakness. Some analysts viewed the lower-than-expected claims as bullish, signaling economic stability that could "spark" risk assets. On the other hand, robust data diminishes the odds of a December rate cut (currently priced at about 85%), potentially leading to tighter monetary policy and short-term bearish pressure on crypto. Social media discussions on insights highlighted this tension: some predicted Bitcoin falling to $68,000-$72,000 due to no rate cut, while others called it "bullish" for reducing recession Overall, the mixed signals contributed to choppy trading, with alts showing inconsistent momentum and the market remaining uncertain. Crypto's correlation with equities and sensitivity to Fed decisions amplified these effects, but positive factors like institutional adoption (e.g ETF filings for Zcash) helped offset downside. Impact on Blue-Chip Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum); Blue-chip cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) serve as the market's anchors, often treated as digital gold and a foundational asset for DeFi, respectively. The jobless claims data initially sparked optimism, with BTC reclaiming $90,000 and ETH following suit in a broader rally. Lower initial claims signal economic strength, which can enhance BTC's appeal as a hedge against inflation especially with US inflation stuck. However, the prospect of fewer rate cuts could pressure BTC, as higher yields make yield-bearing assets more competitive, potentially leading to profit-taking by long-term holders amid US-driven selling pressure. Analysts warn of a possible retrace to $68,000 if no December cut materializes, viewing this as a "nuke" scenario tied to macro tightening. For ETH, the data's implications for liquidity are key, as it powers staking and DeFi protocols. A strong economy could boost network activity through increased consumer spending, but rising continuing claims suggest labor slack that might delay ETH's upside if risk appetite wanes. Recent whale activity, like Arthur Hayes buying ENA (an ETH-related token), indicates selective bullishness, but overall, blue-chips may face short-term volatility with a bias toward consolidation unless Fed signals turn dovish. Impact on Altcoins and Memecoins; Altcoins and memecoins, known for their high beta and speculative nature, are particularly vulnerable to macro shifts. The jobless data's mixed signals led to choppy, directionless movement in alts, with no consistent momentum despite BTC's rebound. Lower claims could indirectly support alts by signaling economic stability, potentially increasing retail participation in high-risk plays like memecoins (e.g DOGE, SHIB). However, the "higher for longer" narrative from strong data is bearish short-term, as it tightens liquidity and favors safer assets over speculative ones. Memecoins, driven by hype and community sentiment, might see amplified volatility: positive economic data could fuel pumps if paired with narratives like AI or RWA integrations, but rising continuing claims hint at consumer caution, dampening retail FOMO. Impact on DeFi Sector Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, involving lending, borrowing, and yield farming, are closely tied to interest rates and liquidity. The drop in initial claims suggests a robust economy, potentially increasing DeFi TVL through higher on-chain activity and stablecoin inflows (e.g, USDC transfers to exchanges). However, rising continuing claims and reduced rate-cut odds could raise borrowing costs in DeFi, mirroring TradFi trends and squeezing leveraged positions. Protocols like Aave or Compound might see volatility in yields, with users shifting to stable assets amid uncertainty. Positive aspects include potential for RWA (real-world assets) growth, as economic strength encourages tokenization of traditional finance. But if the Fed holds rates, DeFi could face outflows, as seen in past hawkish cycles. Recent updates like Starknet's staking milestone (22% supply) show resilience, but the sector remains sensitive to US macro data. Impact on NFTs and Gaming Tokens NFTs and gaming tokens, often viewed as luxury or entertainment assets, thrive in strong economies where disposable income is high. The lower jobless claims bolster consumer confidence, potentially reviving NFT volumes through increased spending on digital collectibles and metaverse projects. However, rising continuing claims signal prolonged unemployment for some, which could curb non-essential purchases, leading to muted activity in this sector. Gaming tokens (e.g in ecosystems like Solana or Polygon) might benefit from economic stability fostering user growth, but the data's implication for tighter liquidity is bearish, as NFTs are high-risk and prone to dumps in risk-off environments. Recent Bolivia's crypto integration could indirectly boost global NFT adoption, but US-centric data dominates sentiment. Impact on Infrastructure and Emerging Sectors (Layer 2, AI, RWAs); Infrastructure cryptos, including Layer 2 solutions (e.g, Optimism, Arbitrum) and oracles (e.g., Chainlink), are foundational and less volatile. Strong labor data could enhance scalability demands if economic growth spurs on-chain transactions, but no rate cuts might delay institutional inflows. AI-themed cryptos (e.g FET, TAO) stand to gain from job market resilience, as low layoffs amid AI adoption (potentially replacing 11.7% of workforce) fuels narratives around tech disruption. RWAs and stablecoins, bridging crypto and TradFi, could see stability from the data, with warnings on USDT's rating due to Bitcoin exposure highlighting risks. Overall, these sectors may consolidate, with upside if the Fed pivots dovish. Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Crypto Amid Mixed Macro Signals; The November 27, 2025, jobless claims report paints a resilient yet nuanced US labor market, with implications for crypto ranging from short-term bearish pressure due to reduced rate-cut odds to longer-term bullishness from economic stability. While the market rallied post-release, volatility persists, underscoring crypto's macro sensitivity. Investors should monitor upcoming data like nonfarm payrolls and FOMC decisions, as they could amplify these effects across sectors. Diversification and caution remain key in this "low-hire, low-fire" environment.

$TAO recently attempted a breakout toward 323.00 but faced rejection, leading to a controlled pullback toward 304.00. Despite selling pressure, price action is stabilizing around the EMA200 and mid-range support, signaling that the downside momentum may be fading. Sentiment around AI-integrated projects like $TAO remains firm, supported by continuous investor interest and broader market confidence in high-cap utility assets. Trading volume has not shown aggressive exit signs, which suggests dip absorption rather than capitulation. If the price maintains above 300.50 and regains upward momentum, a structured recovery toward 309+ and 315+ is likely. Invalidated only if price loses 296.00 decisively.

$TAO 🚨 Major Bittensor Breakthrough🚨 On Nov 26, 2025, DNA Fund (Brock Pierce) & Rizzo Network (Frank Rizzo) launched a $300M Decentralized Autonomous Trust (DAT)-a massive coordinated bet on Bittensor subnets. This move isn’t hype. It’s a structured financial engine designed to: * Supercharge subnet liquidity * Tokenize subnet emissions * Route value across all 128 Bittensor subnets * Turn raw emissions into tradable financial assets 🔥 Why it matters for Bittensor ($TAO): Bittensor is already surging—128 subnets capped, $3.17B market cap, 72% TAO staked, & over $100M daily volume-yet subnet tokens still trade at 10–100x discounts vs. centralized AI platforms. 🔥 What the $300M DAT does: * Buys top-performing alpha tokens (subnet-specific) * Converts them into equity-like DAT shares * Positions those shares for traditional market listings (yes—potentially NASDAQ) This could turn the DAT into the financial hub of the entire Bittensor economy.

#TAO I shared TAO in @Chroma_Trading on November 6, and our first entry at $392 was hit 21 days ago. Unfortunately, the second limit BUY at $260 wasn’t reached by 0.27% 🥲 - but the overall high-timeframe structure still looks strong. Here’s the updated view: Key Technical Points (1D TF) 🔹 Local resistance: $329 → I’m watching whether TAO can reclaim this level on a breakout or a retest. → If that happens, I’ll continue DCA-ing my position. 🔹 Structure still bullish on HTF • Price continues to respect the ascending support line. • TAO perfectly held the daily 0.618 Fibonacci at $280. • Half of the 10 Oct wick has already been filled — good sign of absorption. • Price is holding the 200 DMA (daily moving average). 🔹 RSI Signal RSI just hit 29 — first time since March 2025. Every time RSI reached this level historically, it marked a major bottom. Additionally, TAO is forming a bullish daily divergence, strengthening the reversal probability. Bullish Continuation Scenario As long as price stays above $224, my bias remains bullish. Upside targets: $655 — 1.414 Fibonacci $712 — 1.618 Fibonacci $934 — 2.414 Fibonacci (possibility of a new all-time high) A move toward these levels would mean roughly 100–154% upside from here. Summary: TAO remains one of the cleaner HTF setups: • Strong RSI bottom signal • Bullish divergence • Held key FIB levels • Maintaining structural support • Clear invalidation and clear upside levels I’ll continue monitoring $329 as the first important reclaim level and update if I add more on breakout/retest.