日本加密貨幣稅改將至：稅率或從55%降至20%以刺激市場

Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Original Title: Japan Plans to Reform Cryptocurrency Tax Rate to 20%, Can It Bring a New Wave of Buying?

At the recently concluded WebX event in Japan, Katayama Satsuki, a member of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and chairperson of the Budget Committee in the House of Councillors, stated on site that Japan is currently exploring a reclassification of cryptocurrencies themselves, that is, redefining well-known crypto investment assets such as BTC and ETH. Japan’s current crypto asset tax rate is as high as 55%, but if crypto assets can be transferred from the jurisdiction of the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, the tax rate can be reduced to 20%, consistent with the stock tax rate. She also said: “This reform is expected to be realized within one or two years and is expected to take effect soon. The direction of this reform has been decided by the Cabinet meeting—which usually means strong promotion. However, since the LDP has currently lost its majority in parliament, we need to negotiate with other parties, which will take time and make the process a bit more complicated, but several parties already share our philosophy, so let’s wait and see how things develop. The final conclusion must be finalized before December.”

Odaily will provide a detailed analysis in this article to explore whether this tax rate reform can bring more variables to the crypto market.

Inevitable Change in Crypto Tax Rate: Economic Dilemma under “New Capitalism”

Looking closely at this crypto tax rate reform initiated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and mainly promoted by the LDP, the main reason lies in Japan’s current somewhat poor economic environment.

According to data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan in early July, Japan’s real wages in May, adjusted for inflation, fell by 2.9% year-on-year, further expanding from the revised 2.0% decline in April, marking the largest drop since September 2023. In addition, the consumer price index used by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare to calculate real wages (covering fresh food prices but excluding rent costs) rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, a significant increase over the growth in nominal wages. The price of rice in Japan in May soared by 101.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in more than half a century.

Soaring prices, combined with previous gaffes by cabinet ministers and issues with commodity coupons, have repeatedly damaged the credibility of the ruling LDP. On July 21, the 27th House of Councillors election in Japan completed vote counting, and the ruling coalition formed by the LDP and Komeito won a total of 47 seats, failing to achieve the majority target of 50 seats and unable to maintain a majority in the House of Councillors. In addition, the ruling coalition also failed to achieve a majority in the House of Representatives, officially becoming a “minority government in both houses.” This is the first time since the LDP was founded in 1955 that a ruling coalition led by it has lost a majority in both houses at the same time.

In addition, Japan-US tariff negotiations also affect the pulse of the Japanese economy, influencing changes and developments in the domestic and international economic situation. Japan is now in a rather difficult situation both internally and externally. In view of this, the Japanese government has to seek new solutions under the “new capitalism” policy. Specifically, the Japanese government’s efforts include the following two aspects:

On the one hand, it is to “increase income” for the people by raising the minimum wage. In early August, the Central Minimum Wage Council of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan decided to raise the guideline for the national weighted average minimum wage for fiscal 2025 to 1,118 yen per hour (about 54.60 yuan), an increase of 63 yen from the current 1,055 yen, a 6% increase, the largest increase since the implementation of the hourly wage system in 2002. This is also the 23rd consecutive year that Japan’s minimum wage standard has been raised. If implemented, the hourly wage in all prefectures will exceed 1,000 yen for the first time.

On the other hand, it is to “reduce expenditure” for the people by lowering tax rates. At present, this step is limited by party disputes and is still in the early stages. The LDP has long been committed to promoting the reclassification and reduction of tax rates for crypto assets to promote Japan as a center for the development of the Web 3 industry; but opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Progressive Party have also made similar policy promises in elections (such as NFT and Web 3 measures proposed by Democratic Progressive Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki), so after becoming a “minority government,” the LDP’s tax reform pace has inevitably been delayed to avoid being criticized as a “tax cut for the rich.” This is also why crypto tax reform is seen as a new breakthrough, that is, to change crypto assets from “payment means” regulated by the Payment Services Act to “financial products” under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

As a result, crypto income will be reduced from the progressive tax system of “miscellaneous income” up to 55% (45% income tax + 10% resident tax, excluding local taxes) to a unified tax of 20% like stocks and bonds.

Japan’s “Two-Step” Strategy for Tax Reform: First Amend Tax Law, Then Upgrade Regulation

It is worth mentioning that Japan’s tax reform is not a one-step process. In addition, the reform of crypto assets involves cross-amendments to the Payment Services Act (PSA) and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), making the cycle more complicated, and is also subject to review by the Financial Services Agency (FSA) and political influence in the Diet.

At present, Japan’s tax reform will proceed in two steps:

First, amend the tax law, that is, adjust cryptocurrencies from the “comprehensive taxation” category to the “separate self-assessment taxation” category like stocks, with the tax rate reduced to about 20% (15% income tax + 5.015% resident tax + special reconstruction tax).

Second, upgrade regulation, that is, through legal amendments, reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products, so that the Financial Services Agency can apply insider trading rules, information disclosure standards, and investor protection measures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

Behind Crypto Tax Reform: Crypto ETF and Yen Stablecoin Ready to Launch

It is worth noting that the above reforms are also seen as a prelude by Japanese regulators to the launch of crypto ETFs and yen stablecoins. It must be said that the reason why the development of cryptocurrencies in Japan is currently somewhat sluggish is not unrelated to previous security incidents such as the Mt.Gox Bitcoin theft; and excessively high tax rates have also to some extent limited the trading activity of the crypto industry.

According to statistics from Shiraishi, vice chairman of the Japan Cryptocurrency Business Association, against the backdrop of the global crypto market expanding from $872 billion to $2.66 trillion, Japan’s domestic trading volume only increased from $66.6 billion in 2022 to an estimated $133 billion this year, with a growth rate of only about double.

At the same time, a survey by the Cornell Bitcoin Club showed that 88% of Japanese residents have never owned Bitcoin; but a joint survey by Nomura Holdings and Laser Digital showed that 54% of Japanese institutional investors plan to invest in crypto assets within three years.

Based on the above information, crypto tax reform, the launch of crypto ETFs, and the launch of yen stablecoins are imminent. According to media reports, the first yen stablecoin approved by the Financial Services Agency of Japan—JPYC, issued by a Tokyo fintech company of the same name, plans to issue stablecoins worth 1 trillion yen (about $6.78 billion) within three years. The stablecoin will be backed by highly liquid assets such as deposits and government bonds, and its potential application scenarios include international remittances, corporate payments, and DeFi. Japan’s second largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (SMBC), has also previously announced plans to launch stablecoins in cooperation with Ava Labs and Fireblocks.

Emerging Industries such as Cryptocurrency Seen as “Lifeline” for Japan’s Social Development

The reason why the Japanese government attaches so much importance to the crypto industry is because it sees the development potential of emerging industries represented by the crypto industry—at the WebX 2025 conference held in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated on site that in the current context of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the power of emerging industries has become extremely important in order to explore new paths of economic growth. The Japanese government will continue to optimize the development environment for emerging industries, promote the development of digital, semiconductor, AI, space and other emerging industries including Web 3, and promote the vigorous development of new industries through investment support and regulatory reform.

Ishiba also mentioned that the fundamental reason for Japan’s population decline is the excessive concentration of population in Tokyo, and both the marriage rate and birth rate have declined, forming a vicious cycle. At this historical juncture, the government expects to leverage the potential power of new technologies such as Web 3 to bring new vitality to Japanese society. Web3 technology helps promote various reform measures by the government. Through innovative applications of digital technology, it can not only enhance industrial competitiveness, but also provide new solutions to social problems such as local development and population structure changes.

Conclusion: When Will Tax Reform Start and Be Implemented?

According to the cycle of legal changes in Japan, the tax reform process usually follows an annual rhythm: the tax reform outline is released in December each year, submitted to the Diet for deliberation in March-April of the following year, passed around June, and takes effect in April of the following year. This crypto tax rate reform is a bit urgent, so the specific proposal is expected to be put forward before the end of the year, and legislative action may take place in early 2026.

As for formal implementation, it may have to wait until June 2026 or even the second half of the year. The key figures promoting the bill include Masaaki Taira and Katsunobu Kato from the LDP’s Web 3 Project Team (Web 3 PT), Noriyuki Hirosue, president of JCBA and CEO of Bitbank, and Katayama Satsuki, a member of the House of Councillors and chairperson of the Budget Committee mentioned above.

At that time, the market is expected to usher in a new wave of buying.