Novartis Increases 2030 Growth Projections Despite Analysts' Concerns About Patent Threats

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Novartis Increases 2030 Growth Projections Despite Analysts' Concerns About Patent Threats

Bitget-RWA2025/11/23 20:30

By:Bitget-RWA

- Novartis raised 2030 sales growth targets to 5-6% annually, driven by high peak sales expectations for oncology drugs Kisqali and Scemblix. - CEO Vas Narasimhan highlighted eight de-risked drugs with $3-10B peak potential, but analysts warned of patent expirations and uncertain pipeline progress beyond 2030. - Shares rose 0.5% post-announcement, while Exact Sciences surged 17% on its $105/share acquisition by Abbott and Samsung Biologics saw a 71% valuation re-rating after spin-off. - J.P. Morgan caution

Swiss pharmaceutical leader

Novartis AG

(NOVN.SW) has updated its medium-term revenue outlook,

projecting annual sales growth of 5% to 6% in constant currency through 2030

, fueled by higher anticipated peak sales for its flagship oncology treatments Kisqali and Scemblix. This revised forecast,

shared at a management meeting in London

, signals the company’s optimism in its product lineup even as major drugs like Cosentyx and Entresto approach patent expiration. CEO Vas Narasimhan highlighted the robustness of Novartis’s development pipeline, which features eight lower-risk drugs each with peak sales potential between $3 billion and $10 billion, along with more than 30 promising candidates in advanced development.

Experts remain split on whether Novartis can maintain this growth trajectory. While

Stefan Schneider of Vontobel commended

the company for reliably meeting its goals and raising its peak sales forecasts for Kisqali (now $10 billion) and Scemblix ($4 billion), J.P. Morgan pointed to challenges from patent cliffs and uncertainties in the drug pipeline after 2030. The bank

observed that reaching $72.4 billion in sales by 2030

will depend on strong clinical trial outcomes and regulatory green lights. Following the news, shares of

Novartis

gained 0.5%,

bringing the stock’s year-to-date increase to 16%

Pre-market trading in the pharmaceutical industry was mixed.

Novartis Increases 2030 Growth Projections Despite Analysts' Concerns About Patent Threats image 0

Exact Sciences jumped more than 17%

after Abbott Laboratories announced plans to buy the liquid biopsy company for $105 per share. At the same time, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose over 5% after unveiling new GPU systems that use AMD’s Instinct MI355X chips.

Samsung Biologics, a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) based in South Korea, is set for further expansion after spinning off its biosimilar business.

Analyst Yisoo Jeong from IBK Securities believes

that this move could help attract additional CDMO deals by easing clients’ worries about their intellectual property being exposed to Samsung’s own drug development. According to the analyst, the change

has led to a 71% upward revision

in the company’s valuation.

Novartis’s new outlook also highlighted the significance of its upcoming milestones. The company anticipates more than 15 pivotal readouts over the next two years,

including results from advanced-stage cancer and rare disease studies

. Still,

J.P. Morgan warned that pricing challenges

for Kisqali in the U.S. could become an obstacle, especially if the drug is subject to Medicare price negotiations.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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