Can Bitcoin Return to ATH When $1.5B BTC Options Expire Today?

There are roughly 21,000 Bitcoin options contracts due to expire on Friday, April 12. These have a notional value of around $1.5 billion, which is slightly higher than last week’s expiration event.

Additionally, crypto markets have been relatively stable this week, with total capitalization hovering at just over $2.7 trillion, and Bitcoin is dominating market movements.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s tranch of expiring Bitcoin derivatives has a put/call ratio of 0.62, meaning there are almost twice as many call (long) contracts expiring as puts (shorts).

The max pain point, or price at which most losses will be made on expiry, is $69,000, a little lower than current spot prices.

The bulls appear to be dominating derivatives markets at the moment, with a lot of open interest (OI) at strike prices of above $70,000. The $80,000 and $100,000 strike prices are popular, with $880 million and $934 million in OI, respectively, according to Deribit.

“Volatility levels in the crypto market have risen significantly this week, with $70,000 and $3,500 [for ETH contracts] very much up for grabs,” observed crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live.

It added that implied volatility has “seen significant declines across all major terms, with sell calls having been the most dominant trade of the month, and halving expectations appearing to be overdrawn.”

12 April Options Data
21,000 BTC options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.62, a Maxpain point of $69,000 and a notional value of $1.5 billion.
230,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $3,425 and a notional value of $800… pic.twitter.com/MjPStb9VW1

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) April 12, 2024

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin contracts, 230,000 Ethereum options are due to expire. These have a notional value of $800 million, a put/call ratio of 0.49, and a max pain point of $3,425.

Greeks Live concluded that there has been a slowdown in sentiment, but the halving may keep BTC buoyed in the short-term.

“With the recent slowdown in ETF inflows , the lack of new hot spots in the market and a more subdued sentiment, selling medium-term is indeed the better option, and short term is worth it due to the presence of the halving.”

Crypto Martket Outlook

Crypto markets are trading flat on the day, with total capitalization remaining at $2.74 trillion at the time of writing.

BTC has remained above $70,000 following a brief dip below it on April 11 and was changing hands for $70,900 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset is just 4.2% away from its all-time high.

Ethereum had declined 1.3% on the day to trade at $3,522 at the time of writing. The altcoins were mixed with minor losses or gains for the high cap tokens.