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BlockBeats News, on November 22, bitcoin experienced consecutive sell-offs after reaching a historic high on October 7, with the largest drop exceeding 35% within 46 days. Yesterday, it nearly lost the $80,000 mark, leading the entire cryptocurrency market into several days of steady declines and "bleeding." It has now slightly rebounded to around $85,000. Recently, the risk of a downturn in global financial markets has intensified. The AI bubble debate has dominated the ups and downs of the US stock market. The US government's record-breaking "shutdown" has delayed the release of various important macroeconomic data, causing a sharp contraction in liquidity and significant fluctuations in the probability of a rate cut in December. Within the crypto market, the DAT flywheel model has stalled. The specific bearish factors are summarized as follows: · The market questions whether Nvidia's high accounts receivable can be recovered, as its cash conversion rate is lower than industry peers. At the same time, funds from multiple AI companies are being recycled, with some transactions being double-counted as revenue. Several investment institutions have sold Nvidia shares, and the AI bubble has suppressed the US stock market for a long time, leading to an overall market downturn. Last night, Federal Reserve officials spoke positively about AI, and Nvidia's CEO addressed concerns about the AI bubble, resulting in a rebound in US stocks; · BlackRock's IBIT saw a record single-day outflow of $523 million on the 19th of this month, with a massive net outflow of over $2.5 billions this month, setting a new record for the largest consecutive trading day market cap evaporation in history. Analysts say that retail investors in the US stock market selling spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs is the main source of selling pressure in the crypto market, causing heavy losses for native crypto users; · The DAT flywheel has stalled, and top investors predict that DAT companies will sell off reserves. The mNAV of mainstream DAT companies has all fallen below 1. Some small-scale DAT companies have already started selling their crypto reserves to buy back shares; · The US government has just ended a record 43-day shutdown, during which multiple important economic and employment data releases were suspended. Non-farm payrolls in September unexpectedly increased by 119,000. The Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance and ongoing concerns about inflation have caused significant fluctuations in the probability of a rate cut in December, dropping from an initial high of 70% (25 BP) to 30% over the past month, with traders once betting that there would be no rate cut in December. Early this morning, several Federal Reserve officials collectively turned "dovish," raising the probability of a rate cut to 71.3% (25 BP), and bets on a rate cut have heated up again.

BlockBeats News, November 22, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that Trump stated this week he expects interest rates to drop significantly after appointing a new Federal Reserve Chair in May next year. However, internal opposition within the Fed to a rate cut in December is growing, which means his wish may be difficult to realize. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut them in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance of his nearly eight-year tenure. This division may continue into next year, meaning that even replacing the Chair does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some are concerned that if Trump does not get his way, he may take more aggressive measures to weaken the central bank's independence in exchange for rate cuts. For more than 30 years, Federal Reserve Chairs have sought to reach the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, and there has never been a decision passed by a narrow majority. However, the December meeting is very likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha said, we are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a seriously divided committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026. This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a rare narrow majority (rather than the broad consensus pursued for many years), and a new Chair appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time. (Golden Ten Data)